The invasion of Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas has shattered the illusion of stability in the Middle East and triggered a war that could reshape great-power influence in the region and beyond.
How it all shakes out will depend in large part on the length and course of the war, including whether another Iranian-backed militant organization, Hizballah, opens a second front against Israel in the north, expanding the conflict to Lebanon and potentially Syria.
A blast that killed hundreds of people at a hospital in Gaza on October 17 ignited mutual accusations, increasing the tension hours before U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in Israel on a visit that underscored the stakes for the Middle East, Washington, and the world.
The new war may help the Kremlin by drawing attention away from the carnage it is causing in Ukraine, squeezing U.S. military resources, and bolstering Russia’s anti-Western narratives, analysts say — but a widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict could strain Moscow’s carefully cultivated Middle East ties and jeopardize its clout in the region.
Over more than two decades in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made significant strides in rebuilding the influence Moscow lost among predominantly Muslim countries in the Middle East following the Soviet collapse of 1991, while also establishing friendly ties with Israel.
But Israel sees Syria and Iran as serious national security threats, and Putin has strengthened Russia’s ties with both of those countries.
He has increased Russia’s military presence in Syria, where the Kremlin, Hizballah, and Iran have supported President Bashar al-Assad in his 12-year war against opposition groups — some of which are backed by the United States, which also has troops in the country. He has also expanded defense ties with Iran, a major supplier of attack drones that Russia is using in its war on Ukraine.
Now, something could break.
“The real test for Russia’s relationship with Israel is going…
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