We’re on to Week 12 of the college football season.
My primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, I have highlighted my three favorite betting spots for Week 12’s noon games.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I’m on the fence for, but it’s certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I’d play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 12, here’s the full piece.
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- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023:Â 46-39-0 +2.13 units (54.1%)
- Overall:Â 91-59-1 +24.95 units (60.7%)
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Miami +1 vs. Louisville
12 p.m. ET â‹… ABC
I haven’t been a fan of this Louisville team all season.
The Cardinals deserve credit for winning nine of their 10 games, but they’ve played only one top-30 team, per my numbers, which came at home against an exhausted Notre Dame team in one of the best situational spots of the season.
It also didn’t hurt that Notre Dame, which had wide receiver injuries and made a bizarre decision to rotate offensive linemen, turned the ball over five times.
The rest of Louisville’s resume leaves a lot to be desired even if you remove a horrid blowout loss at Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals have gone 4-0 in one-possession games that each easily could’ve gone either way against NC State, Virginia, Indiana and Georgia Tech — not exactly a murderer’s row — and three of…
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