“I don’t think we are headed for a recession, but I think growth will be a good bit slower in coming months,” he said.
After the rush of consumer spending, the economy always starts the year with job loss, so assessing the year’s start is a question of whether companies held on to more workers than usual because they expect growth as the year plays out.
And this year’s shrinkage was slightly less than the previous three years, according to Bruce Thompson, the state’s labor commissioner.
Among the month’s biggest losers were transportation and warehousing, which shed 14,700 positions; retail, which lost 10,200 jobs; and hospitality, which dropped by 3,000, according to the Department of Labor. There was also a loss of 5,800 jobs in administrative and support work, which can be connected to holiday-driven positions.
But the longer trend has been positive.
Job growth — in Georgia and nationally — has defied more than a year of fears about the burden of high interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve in an effort to tame inflation. And while inflation is dramatically down, it is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target.
So, the Fed is expected to hold rates high at least into the summer, which adds to borrowing costs for companies and consumers alike.
Pessimists say that a downturn has only been delayed, and that the Fed’s delay in cutting rates only makes recession more likely. Still, most economists now predict a “soft landing” in which expansion slows, inflation falls to acceptable levels and hiring then accelerates.
The first part of the soft landing scenario has happened.
The pace of hiring has steadily slowed. Metro Atlanta growth during the past 12 months ending in January was about one-fifth of the 111,200 jobs added during the 12 months that ended in January 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Since January 2023, metro Atlanta has gained 23,700 jobs with expansion in health care and social assistance, hospitality, local…
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